Replicator dynamics and behavior-augmented multiscale epidemic modeling

Abstract

This study presents a multiscale modeling framework that integrates stochastic integrate-and-fire dynamics, networked replicator dynamics, and a behavior-augmented SEIRS model to simulate the interplay between agent behaviors and infection spread. Traditional compartmental epidemiological models often overlook behavioral adaptations and network complexity that underlie disease transmission. In contrast, our approach captures the stochastic acquired viral load, reflecting how repeated exposures increase the risk of infection, while dynamically 15 December 2025 15:08:39 modeling the agent's protective behaviors as they adapt to perceived risks, imitation influence, and aggregate costs. The integration of these components allows the model to explicitly capture synchronization between behavioral adaptation and infection prevalence. Simulations reveal that this synchronized feedback can give rise to recurrent PLEASE CITE THIS ARTICLE AS DOI: 10.1063/5.0297383 outbreaks, in which declining risk perception triggers a resurgence. More specifically, the integrate-and-fire mechanism buffers abrupt transitions, smoothing epidemic waves, while information delays exacerbate fluctuations. However, elevated risk awareness mitigates these disruptions by sustaining proactive behavior. By bridging evolutionary game theory, network science, and epidemiological modeling, this framework demonstrates that epidemic control depends not only on biological parameters but also on the timing, adaptation, and synchronization of collective behavior. Our findings underscore three critical components for epidemic control: timely communication, risk-aware policies, and feedback-responsive interventions. These strategies can stabilize disease dynamics and improve preparedness for future pandemics. Virus spread is driven not only by biology but also by human behavior. When a threat arises, people adopt I. INTRODUCTION protective behaviors such as mask-wearing and social Measles cases in the U.S. have recently reached a distancing, but as perceived risk declines, vigilance three-decade high, driven largely by an outbreak that often fades, enabling resurgence. This study began in West Texas and has since spread to other states1– introduces a novel framework that integrates 3. This surge threatens the nation’s measles-elimination infection dynamics with social behavior, treating status and underscores the need to revisit lessons from humans as active agents shaping the epidemic rather COVID-19, applying pandemic-era insights to than passive victims.